Gold Market Updatepara oroyfinanzas por cortesía deClive Maundwww.clivemaund.com 30 May 2005The dollar is really pushing its luck here, having risen to hit 3 separate but concurrent targets. In the last update we forecast that it would confound most pundits by stubbornly pushing higher, despite the heavy resistance, and such has proved to be the case. We can see 2 of these trendline targets on the 6-month chart, and an additional trendline target on the 4-year chart further down the page. Looking at the 6-month chart more closely we can see how the gains of the past 2 weeks have been hard won, this is because, as we can plainly see, it has been nudging the resistance of these 3 trendlines.

ACM - A REFCO GROUPCOMPANYFrancia a dicho ´NO´… ¡y por mayoría abrumadora! Hola, saludos a todos desde Ginebra. Ya lo veis. Empezamos la semana digiriendo los resultados del referéndum francés sobre la Constitución europea y con otra nueva consulta popular a la vista, esta vez el jueves en Holanda. En cualquier caso, hoy es una sesión de escasas referencias ‘macro’ porque es festivo en Nueva York y Londres. La cita clave llegará el próximo jueves: el BCE tiene que decidir sobre los tipos de interés, actualmente en el 2%, con la presión del FMI y de la OCDE para que rebaje el precio del dinero. Otro de los datos clave esta semana será la tasa de desempleo en Estados Unidos correspondiente al mes de mayo, que se publicará el viernes.

Gold –The Weekly Global Perspective para oroyfinanzas por cortesía deJulian PhillipsGold Authentic Money May 27, 2005Snow Yuants a 10% Revaluation, but will he get it? The confrontation has mounted since last week. Finance Secretary Snow wants a 10% revaluation. This issue is now firmly political in the eyes of the U.S. A 10% revaluation as Greenspan pointed out will do nothing to the Trade deficit. Even if it were a massive revaluation, it would simply shift the demand for cheaper goods to other countries. The higher cost of these imports would be reflected in a higher Trade Deficit, not a lower one. Once U.S. manufacturing competition has closed down, the U.S. becomes dependent on imports, so to increase their price means to increase the Trade deficit, again as Greenspan pointed out. The Chinese have made it clear that they will not be pushed around by the U.S. So why does Snow keep pushing, is it for home consumption?

ACM - A REFCO GROUPCOMPANYEl Euro se la juega con franciaSaludos a todos desde Ginebra. El dólar se ha recuperado algo más en su cruce frente al euro al calor de las buenas cifras de crecimiento en Estados Unidos publicadas ayer. El PIB 1T (2ª revisión, 3.5% trimestral) ha sido bien acogido por el Mercado, arrojando un fuerte crecimiento en el consumo privado (3.6%). El mercado inmobiliario americano continúa muy fuerte, lo que estamos viendo confirmado en las últimas cifras conocidas esta semana. El punto más crítico es el de los precios: el deflactor implícito del PIB (3.1%) se sitúa en niveles muy altos que resultarían críticos para el crecimiento si persisten en el tiempo.

GOLD: time on the COTs clock...para oroyfinanzas por cortesía deClive Maundwww.clivemaund.com 26 May 2005The COT charts faithfully track the ebb and flow of what might be termed “smart” and “dumb” money in the market, and thus give a strong indication of when a top or bottom is forming in a market. On these charts the market players are classified either as “Large Specs”, “Small Specs” or “Commercials” and it is very easy to label these groups of players as either smart or dumb by empirical observation - by going back and seeing the positions they took in the past and what subsequently happened. It may appear to be cynical or even cruel to label market participants in such a seemingly cavalier fashion, but the market is a cynical place, and anyway it’s fun, and it’s not personal - the composition of these groups is continually changing and a trader may begin his career as a dumb small speculator and slowly graduate to become a commercial and spend his later years fleecing dumb small (and large) specs.

ACM - A REFCO GROUPCOMPANYSe confirmará hoy el crecimiento?Saludos a todos desde Ginebra. Tras la publicación, últimamente, de una serie de datos que confirman el crecimiento de la economía norteamericana, las compras de dólares por los especuladores intradía en FOREX no sorprenden a nadie. Además, las últimas cifras europeas -confianza empresarial alemana- sitúan al euro en negativo. Ayer, una cifra americana de pedidos de bienes duraderos superior a la esperada y una cifra de venta de viviendas en máximos históricos (13% anual) han vuelto a impulsar al dólar. En unos minutos, la publicación de la primera revisión del PIB estadounidense es la principal clave de la jornada.

EMPEROR GREENSPAN HAS NO CLOTHESpara oroyfinanzas por cortesía deTodd Stein & Steven McIntyreThe Texas Hedge Report May 26, 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s solution to every economic crisis has been to print more money - often by cutting rates which has the effect of increasing credit. The Alan Greenspan, who several decades ago clearly understood the Austrian school of economic thought (purge speculative excesses before they get out of hand) and the value of a gold-backed sound currency, is gone. Turned to the Darkside did he. With every scramble to frantically pump in credit at the first sign of a potential economic slowdown, Greenspan’s transformation from a sound central banker (i.e. Paul Volcker) to an intellectually corrupted and pandering politician (seeking to keep the public working and the stock and real estate market bubbles propped up at all costs) was made more complete. The debt and deficit ridden economic house of cards that certain areas of the U.S. financial system have become was not going to collapse on his watch.

Three Signs of a Gold Bottompara oroyfinanzas por cortesía deMike Swanson WallstreetWindow 25/05/2005For several weeks now, I have been on the watch for a gold bottom to use as a buying opportunity. We are seeing three technical signs that we are near a definitive bottom for gold and gold stocks. 1)The divergence between the XAU gold stock index and Gold reached an extreme level The action in gold stocks tends to lead the action in the metal. When gold stocks outperform gold it has historically been bullish for both the stocks and the metal. However, when the stocks trade weaker than gold a correction is usually near.I keep track of the relationship between gold stocks and the metal by looking at the price of the XAU gold stock index divided by the price of gold. This is the XAU/gold ratio. When this ratio is rising, gold stocks are outperforming gold and when it is falling, gold stocks are trading weaker than the metal, which is bearish.

ACM - A REFCO GROUPCOMPANYEUR/USD:Continúa la debilidadBuenos días desde Ginebra. Números rojos en el EUR/USD marcados por los flojos datos en Europa. Ayer –recordad- decepcionó el sentimiento económico alemán (ZEW: 13.9 puntos versus los 21 esperados), mientras que en la Eurozona tanto la producción industrial como la balanza comercial se han revisado a la baja. Esta mañana, el índice IFO, que mide la confianza empresarial en Alemania, ha caído hasta los 92.9 puntos en mayo, desde los 93.3 correspondientes a abril. Las previsiones de mayor crecimiento en Estados Unidos, junto con las revisiones a la baja sobre la marcha del PIB en los países de la Eurozona, anunciadas ayer por la OCDE, están teniendo reflejo en el Mercado del EUR/USD, que vuelve a arrojar un sesgo intradía bajista.

Gold Market Updatepara oroyfinanzas por cortesía deClive Maundwww.clivemaund.com 21 May 2005Since the last update the dollar has broken out upside from its long-term downtrend and gold has broken down from its long-term uptrend. However, the situation remains finely balanced as these breakouts are not yet major, when viewed on long-term charts, and the dollar on Friday attained a short-term target stipulated in the last update, and is now overbought and just beneath a zone of heavy resistance. This means that any further gains, short-term, will be hard-won. That said, these breakouts are serious developments, and the risk is that, after consolidation or minor reaction to alleviate the overbought condition, the dollar continues to forge ahead.